Team Analytics Round-Up: December

Welcome back to this monthly series. Statistics used are from the great people at MoneyPuck.com. 

The first analytics article covering October and November. https://nhl20212022.blogspot.com/2021/12/team-analytics-round-up-octobernovember.html

The month of December and the 2021 calendar year is over. The NHL season was put on pause due to numerous covid outbreaks among the teams. But plenty of hockey was still played by all 32 teams. 

All stats are as of January 1st (excluding the games played on New Year’s day).

We begin with the 5-on-5 statistics so far from each team. The table is ranked by xGoals% from best to worst.

Index: Difference between xGoals% and Goal% (Differential), Goals for above expected (GFAx), Goals against above expected (GAAx), High Danger shots for/against (HDSF/A), Medium Danger shots for/against (MDSF/A), Low Danger shots for/against (LDSF/A), Percentage of Shots taken by the team (Corsi%)

Florida is still the top team in the league 5-on-5. Other usual suspects like Boston, Colorado, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Calgary are also near the top. 

Vegas jumped from an xGoals percentage of 47.88% (25th) after November, to an xGoals percentage of 51.54% (12th) at the new calendar year. It is safe to say that Vegas getting Stone and Pacioretty back has helped out. (Albeit Pacioretty is undergoing wrist surgery and will be out indefinitely). Vegas’ offense has gotten better, but their defense is still a cause for concern. They have the most HDSA in the NHL. Vegas also has a lot of MDSA and LDSA. Vegas will need to straighten this out of they want to contend for the cup this season.

Detroit has dropped off since November, going from their xGoals percentage being at 51.11% (11th) down to 48.66% (20th). Another faller in the rankings is Minnesota. They have gone from being dominant at 53.97% (6th) to being a still-solid 51.63% (11th). 

The bottom 9 are all far off of the 50% median. The notable teams near the bottom of the rankings are the Blues and the Rangers. Both of these teams are playoff contenders at the moment, but their 5-on-5 play has left something to be desired. St. Louis has been aided by very good goaltending, and the Rangers have squeaked out wins thanks to their power-play, and Igor Shesterkin in the net. 

The next statistical category in the breakdown is team goaltending. 

Index: Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), Expected Goals Against (xGA), Goals Against Average (GAA), Wins Above Replacement from goaltending (Goalie WAR)

Carolina’s defense has been solid up to this point of the season, according to their xGA. But their goaltending has been out of this world. Led by Frederik Andersen, the Canes have a mind-boggling 20.5 GSAx. The only question for them is this: Can their goalies sustain this level of play throughout the season? And more importantly, in the playoffs?

Florida’s goaltending has regressed heavily from the end of November. They went from 15.6 GSAx, to 8.5 GSAx. 8.5 is still a solid number, but it is nowhere near the elite goaltending that they were getting to begin the season. If their goaltending continues to regress, it could be a sign of trouble for Florida before the season ends. 

New Jersey’s goaltending has also fallen off of a cliff, going from a solid 4.7 GSAx, to now the 6th-worst GSAx at-11.5. A Devils team that once looked like they could compete for a playoff spot, is now stuck behind the ball compared to their competition in the eastern conference. Their goaltending will need to step up if the Devils want to compete for the playoffs this season.

Colorado is an elite team in every faucet, except goaltending. They are 5th-worst at -12.3 GSAx. Colorado only needs stable goaltending to be considered the favorite for the Stanley Cup. They can’t even get that at the moment. 

The final breakdown is what each team’s top line and top pairing are. And how they are doing compared to the other top lines and pairings are doing. The minimum ice-time requirements for forward lines are 90 minutes, and 110 minutes for defensive pairings.

*Note* I cut off forward lines that have not played at least 90 minutes together, however the Hurricanes and Blues did not have any forward lines that hit the 90-minute minimum. So I went with their best forward lines with reasonable ice-time together.

Index: Time played together (Minutes), Team Expected Goal Percentage when on the ice (xGoal%), Team Goal Percentage when on the ice (Goal%), Goals for above expected when on the ice (GFAx), Team Shots for when on the ice (Shots for), Team Shots per 60 minutes when on the ice (Shots For/60), Percentage of Shots taken by team when on the ice (Corsi%)

Forward Lines

Defensive Pairings

The best offensive lines in the NHL up to this point are still Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau and Zucker-Rodrigues-Kapanen. However, Pittsburgh stopped icing the ZRK line at the end of November. Once Kapanen comes back from Covid protocol. And Zucker from his week-to-week injury, Pittsburgh should run this line again. 

The forward lines taking the most out of their opportunities are Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson and Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone. Pacioretty getting injured does hurt Vegas, however, once he returns alongside Eichel, Vegas on paper should have one of, if not the best offensive line in the NHL. 

The most snakebitten lines in the NHL are Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi and Bunting-Matthews-Nylander. Both of these lines are at the bottom of GFAx. Toronto is already near the top of the standings in the NHL. If their shooting luck (not just for this line, but across the board) begins to turn around. They have all the pieces for a cup run. Edmonton has gone on a skid since the beginning of December. That top line and the top defensive pair of Nurse-Bouchard not taking advantage of their chances has heavily hurt Edmonton. Especially considering the lack of depth on the Oilers. 

Boston still has the best defensive pairing in the NHL. Gryzlyck-McAvoy has produced an insane 72.5 xGoals%. They have helped carry the top-heavy Bruins near a wild-card spot. The Bruins will need to add depth if they want to make a deep run. 

Werenski-Bean at this point has been one of the worst pairings in the NHL. The issue is not the skill level, rather, it is the placement of the defenseman. Both Werenski and Bean are offense-first defensemen. If this paring gets caught in its own end, they are likely going to be hemmed in for most, if not their entire shift. Splitting the two defensemen would allow for the two to take better advantage of their skillset. And it would be more beneficial for the team. 

Sergachev-Foote has quietly been a very good pairing for the Lightning. One of the questions that Tampa Bay faced heading into another season of defending their crown was how good their depth was going to be. Safe to say that their depth is still one of the many strengths of their team. Tampa’s top line in xGoals% has been their “bottom line” of Maroon-Bellemare-Perry.  

Here are the standings as of January 1st at 9 PM (Via NHL.com). 

In the Metropolitan Division. The numbers tell us that the Rangers are due for a regression. And the Flyers’ goaltending is the only thing stopping them from a complete collapse. Pittsburgh will continue their climb in the standings as long as their goaltending remains stable. The Hurricanes may be due for a slight regression if their goaltending hits a rough patch. 

The Atlantic Division is wide open. Tampa Bay, Florida, and Toronto are all viable contenders for the division crown. Boston with better production from their depth can go on a run near the top of the division over the next month or two. Detroit is close to regressing out of a playoff spot. They need to start playing better. Buffalo, Ottawa, and Montreal are all where they belong according to the analytics. 

The Central Division has been a wildcard so far this season due to Colorado’s poor goaltending. Nashville is quietly having a good season. St. Louis will fall down the standings if their goaltending begins to falter. Dallas is a team that can get hot if their goaltending stabilizes. 

The Pacific Division is beginning to shape into what it will likely finish as. Even with their defensive problems. Vegas is where they belong at the top. Calgary will be competing with Vegas for the number 1 spot until the playoffs. Edmonton’s poor streak is a sign that things could get worse for them. Edmonton’s depth is the worst it has ever been, and their goaltending shows no signs of getting better. McDavid and Draisaitil will once again have to carry them to a playoff spot. LA’s lack of shooting talent looks to be the downfall of their team this season. While Seattle’s league-worst goaltending has killed any serious chance that they will make the playoffs.